Early estimate. This competition has thin history in our data and no bookmaker line yet, so these numbers come from a ratings model alone. Treat them as a lean, not a call. They sharpen once odds arrive.

Home win is our most likely single outcome at 45%, but not a majority call, so the pick is the double chance on the home side or the draw at 71%. The straight Home win at 2.30 is the value angle: we rate it 45% against the bookmakers' 42%. A generous price, not a confident pick.