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Spain · Segunda Division · Mon 19 Oct · 18:30
14th · 12 pts · -1 GD
1:1
Full time
12th · 13 pts · -2 GD
38%
RC Celta Fortuna
28%
Draw
34%
Tenerife
Bookmakers say
33% / 29% / 38%
Where we differ most
H +5%
Our pick
Home win or draw (1X) · we say 66%
Home win is our most likely single outcome at 38%, but not a majority call, so the pick is the double chance on the home side or the draw at 66%. The straight Home win at 2.51 is the value angle: we rate it 38% against the bookmakers' 33%. A generous price, not a confident pick.
Both teams to score
55%
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Consensus
1X2
Home 100%
BTTS
Yes 91%
O/U 2.5
Under 100%
| Source | Result | BTTS | O/U 2.5 | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| modelWaveBets Blend | Home | Yes | Under | - |
| oddsBookmakers | Home | - | Under | - |
| Team | Elo | Att | Def |
|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta Fortuna | 1432 | 1.22 | 1.47 |
| Tenerife | 1437 | 0.95 | 1.29 |
Tenerife rated 6 Elo ahead. Attack and defence are goals per game the model expects against an average side.
Correct score heatmap, Asian handicap and the AI pre-match write-up
Unlock with ProRC Celta Fortuna 1-1 Tenerife. Our model leaned RC Celta Fortuna to win (38%) and got this one wrong. Picks: H:0 pushed, U won (+0.0u), H:0 pushed, RC Celta Fortuna to win lost (-10.0u).
| punditClaude Haiku 4.5 (Basho) |
| Home |
| Yes |
| Under |
| 52% |
“Celta B has a slight model edge (38.01% vs 34.86% market) and stronger defensive ratings (1.46 vs 1.235), though both teams are mid-table with inconsistent form.” |
| punditDeepSeek V3.2 (Wei) | Home | Yes | Under | 55% |
“The model gives a slight edge to the home win at 38.0% vs.” | ||||
| punditGemini 2.5 Flash (Gem) | Home | Yes | Under | 65% |
“Celta B has a 38.01% chance of winning according to our model, which is higher than the market's 36.54%.” | ||||
| punditGLM 4.6 (Chen) | Home | Yes | Under | 65% |
“The model gives Celta B a 0.38 win probability against Tenerife's 0.34, making the Double Chance 1X the safest pick at 0.66.” | ||||
| punditGPT-5 Mini (Sam) | Home | Yes | Under | 65% |
“Model gives Celta B 38.01% vs Tenerife 33.90% and draw 28.09%, with BTTS at 54.43% and Under 2.5 at 53.39%; home is a marginal favorite but both-team scoring is slightly likelier.” | ||||
| punditGrok 4 Fast (Elon) | Home | Yes | Under | 38% |
“Model 1X2 edges home at 0.3801 (vs market 0.3654, +0.0147 edge) over away 0.339; OU25 leans under at 0.5339 and BTTS yes at 0.5443, with near-identical Elo (1433.8 vs 1438.4) and table spots (16th/11pts vs 13th/12pts) keeping it tight.” | ||||
| punditKimi K2 (Peng) | Home | Yes | Under | 52% |
“Model gives Celta B a 38.0% win chance vs market 36.5%, yielding a 1.47% edge.” | ||||
| punditLlama 4 Maverick (Mark) | Home | Yes | Under | 42% |
“Model gives Celta B a slight edge (38.01% vs 33.9% for Tenerife) and a positive edge of 0.0147.” | ||||
| punditMistral Medium 3.1 (Arthur) | Home | Yes | Under | 65% |
“Model gives home win 38.01% vs market 36.54%, with positive edge (0.0147).” | ||||
| punditQwen3 235B (Jack) | Home | No | Under | 68% |
“The model gives Celta B a 38.01% chance of winning, higher than the bookmakers' 36.54%, indicating slight edge.” | ||||
AI pundits reason over our data pack; they have no extra information.