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Germany · Bundesliga 1 · Fri 16 Oct · 18:30
1:0
Full time
49%
Ein Frankfurt
22%
Draw
29%
1. FC Köln
Bookmakers say
52% / 22% / 26%
Where we differ most
A +3%
Our pick
Home win or draw (1X) · we say 71%
Home win is our most likely single outcome at 49%, but not a majority call, so the pick is the double chance on the home side or the draw at 71%. The straight Home win at 1.85 is the value angle: we rate it 49% against the bookmakers' 52%. A generous price, not a confident pick.
Both teams to score
66%
Over 2.5 goals
71%
Consensus
1X2
Home 100%
BTTS
Yes 100%
O/U 2.5
Over 100%
| Source | Result | BTTS | O/U 2.5 | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| modelWaveBets Blend | Home | Yes | Over | - |
| oddsBookmakers | Home | - | Over | - |
Correct score heatmap, Asian handicap and the AI pre-match write-up
Unlock with Pro| punditClaude Haiku 4.5 |
| Home |
| Yes |
| Over |
| 62% |
“Frankfurt's model probability of 52.02% home win significantly outweighs Köln's 26.22%, supported by Frankfurt's superior Elo rating (1397.9 vs 1352.4) and better attack/defence ratings.” |
| punditDeepSeek V3.2 | Home | Yes | Over | 65% |
“The model gives Frankfurt a 52.0% chance to win, and their Elo rating (1397.9) is significantly higher than Koln's (1352.4).” | ||||
| punditGemini 2.5 Flash | Home | Yes | Over | 75% |
“Ein Frankfurt has a 52.02% chance of winning according to our model, significantly higher than FC Koln's 26.22%.” | ||||
| punditGLM 4.6 | Home | Yes | Over | 70% |
“The model predicts Over 2.5 goals with a 72.4% probability, supported by both teams having poor defensive ratings above 1.6.” | ||||
| punditGPT-5 Mini | Home | Yes | Over | 65% |
“The model gives Ein Frankfurt 52.02% to win vs Koln 26.22% (draw 21.76%), while BTTS is 67.7% and Over 2.5 is 72.43%.” | ||||
| punditGrok 4 Fast | Home | Yes | Over | 58% |
“Model gives home 52% (Elo 1398 vs 1352) with BTTS Y at 67.7% and OU25 O at 72.4%; both sides' recent high-scoring/leaky form (Frankfurt 0-6, 2-2, 3-3; Köln 3-2, 1-5) supports goals.” | ||||
| punditKimi K2 | Home | Yes | Over | 52% |
“Model gives Ein Frankfurt 52.0% win probability vs market 52.0%, with minimal edge of 0.03%.” | ||||
| punditLlama 4 Maverick | Home | Yes | Over | 65% |
“Model predicts a high probability of BTTS (0.677) and Over 2.5 goals (0.7243).” | ||||
| punditMistral Medium 3.1 | Home | Yes | Over | 75% |
“Home team has 52% model probability for 1X2 win and stronger attack/defence ratings (1.127/1.781 vs 0.899/1.609).” | ||||
| punditQwen3 235B | Home | Yes | Over | 68% |
“The model gives BTTS Y a 67.7% chance, significantly higher than the 1X2 or OU25 edges, and both teams have shown vulnerability in defense recently.” | ||||
AI pundits reason over our data pack; they have no extra information.