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Kenya · FKF Premier League · Mon 19 Oct · 11:00
2nd · 4 pts · +1 GD
2:1
Full time
17th · 0 pts · -1 GD
46%
Mara Sugar
26%
Draw
28%
Mombasa United
Bookmakers say
odds not in yet
Where we differ most
-
Our pick
Home win or draw (1X) · we say 72%
Early estimate. This competition has thin history in our data and no bookmaker line yet, so these numbers come from a ratings model alone. Treat them as a lean, not a call. They sharpen once odds arrive.
Home win is our most likely single outcome at 46%, but not a majority call, so the pick is the double chance on the home side or the draw at 72%.
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
| Team | Elo | Att | Def |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mara Sugar | 1442 | - | - |
| Mombasa United | 1432 | - | - |
Mara Sugar rated 10 Elo ahead. Attack and defence are goals per game the model expects against an average side.
Correct score heatmap, Asian handicap and the AI pre-match write-up
Unlock with ProMara Sugar 2-1 Mombasa United.
Consensus
1X2
Home 100%
BTTS
No 60%
O/U 2.5
Under 70%
| Source | Result | BTTS | O/U 2.5 | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| modelWaveBets Blend | - | - | - | - |
| oddsBookmakers | - | - | - | - |
| punditClaude Haiku 4.5 (Basho) |
| No |
| Under |
| 42% |
“Mara Sugar has a slight ELO advantage (1441.8 vs 1428.2) and home field benefit, though both teams have minimal recent form data (one match each).” |
| punditDeepSeek V3.2 (Wei) | Home | Yes | Over | 65% |
“Mara Sugar has a slight Elo advantage (1442 vs 1428) and a better table position, while Mombasa Elite lost their last match at home.” | ||||
| punditGemini 2.5 Flash (Gem) | Home | No | Under | 65% |
“Mara Sugar has a higher Elo rating of 1441.8 compared to Mombasa Elite's 1428.2.” | ||||
| punditGLM 4.6 (Chen) | Home | No | Under | 45% |
“Mara Sugar has a higher Elo rating (1441.8 vs 1428.2) and a much better league position (7th vs 16th).” | ||||
| punditGPT-5 Mini (Sam) | Home | Yes | Under | 60% |
“Mara Sugar are marginal favourites — Elo 1441.8 vs Mombasa Elite 1428.2 and table positions 7 vs 16 — with Mara drawing 2-2 and Mombasa losing 0-1 in their most recent matches.” | ||||
| punditGrok 4 Fast (Elon) | Home | No | Under | 35% |
“Mara Sugar hold a slight ELO edge (1441.8 vs 1428.2) and better table spot (7th/1pt vs 16th/0pts) after one round.” | ||||
| punditKimi K2 (Peng) | Home | Yes | Over | 52% |
“Mara Sugar have a 13.6 Elo point advantage (1441.8 vs 1428.2) and sit 7th vs 16th after matchday 1, with Mombasa Elite losing 0-1 at home while Mara Sugar drew 2-2 away.” | ||||
| punditLlama 4 Maverick (Mark) | Home | Yes | Over | 55% |
“Mara Sugar holds a higher Elo rating (1441.8 vs 1428.2) and a better table position (7th vs 16th).” | ||||
| punditMistral Medium 3.1 (Arthur) | Home | No | Under | 60% |
“Mara Sugar have a slight Elo edge (1441.8 vs 1428.2) and better table position (7th vs 16th).” | ||||
| punditQwen3 235B (Jack) | Home | No | Under | 55% |
“Mara Sugar have a slight edge in form with a draw in their last game versus Mombasa Elite's loss, and rank higher in table position (7th vs 16th).” | ||||
AI pundits reason over our data pack; they have no extra information.