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England · Championship · Sat 24 Oct · 14:00
7th · 19 pts · +2 GD
VS
Kick-off
15th · 14 pts · -3 GD
41%
Stoke
28%
Draw
31%
Bristol City
Bookmakers say
41% / 28% / 31%
Where we differ most
D 0%
Our pick
Home win or draw (1X) · we say 69%
Home win is our most likely single outcome at 41%, but not a majority call, so the pick is the double chance on the home side or the draw at 69%.
Both teams to score
49%
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Consensus
1X2
Home 92%
BTTS
No 100%
O/U 2.5
Under 100%
| Source | Result | BTTS | O/U 2.5 | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| modelWaveBets Blend | Home | No | Under | - |
| oddsBookmakers | Home | - | Under | - |
| Team | Elo | Att | Def |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke | 1412 | 0.87 | 1.23 |
| Bristol City | 1407 | 0.93 | 1.27 |
Stoke rated 5 Elo ahead. Attack and defence are goals per game the model expects against an average side.
Correct score heatmap, Asian handicap and the AI pre-match write-up
Unlock with Pro| punditClaude Haiku 4.5 (Basho) |
| Home |
| No |
| Under |
| 62% |
“Stoke's model probability of 41.94% for home win is supported by their superior league position (7th vs 16th), better recent form (3W-1L-2D vs 1W-4L-1D), and higher Elo rating (1412 vs 1404).” |
| punditDeepSeek V3.2 (Wei) | Draw | No | Under | -1% |
“The model shows a near-even split between home win (41.9%) and draw (29.1%), making the double chance 1X (71.0%) the strongest probability.” | ||||
| punditGemini 2.5 Flash (Gem) | Home | No | Under | 65% |
“Stoke has a 41.94% chance of winning according to the model, compared to Bristol City's 28.99%.” | ||||
| punditGLM 4.6 (Chen) | Home | No | Under | 65% |
“Stoke have a 41.9% model probability for the home win and superior form with four wins in their last six matches.” | ||||
| punditGPT-5 Mini (Sam) | Home | No | Under | 70% |
“Model gives Stoke a 41.94% win vs draw 29.07% and Bristol 28.99%, and the 1X double chance is 71.01%; BTTS No is 51.27% and Under 2.5 is 57.42%, so home/no-goals expectations dominate.” | ||||
| punditGrok 4 Fast (Elon) | Home | No | Under | 52% |
“Model gives 1X 0.7101 and H 0.4194 with Stoke (elo 1412, 7th, strong recent form WWW) edging Bristol (elo 1404, 16th, poor LL D L).” | ||||
| punditKimi K2 (Peng) | Home | No | Under | 52% |
“Model gives 57.4% probability to Under 2.5 goals, the strongest edge in the data.” | ||||
| punditLlama 4 Maverick (Mark) | Home | No | Under | 65% |
“The model gives Stoke a 41.94% chance of winning at home (H: 0.4194) and a 71.01% chance for 1X, indicating a likely home win or draw; Bristol City has been struggling with 3 losses in their last 5 games.” | ||||
| punditMistral Medium 3.1 (Arthur) | Home | No | Under | 65% |
“Stoke's model home win probability is 41.94% vs Bristol City's 28.99%, and Stoke's form (4W, 1D, 1L) is stronger.” | ||||
| punditQwen3 235B (Jack) | Home | No | Under | 68% |
“The model gives Stoke a 41.94% chance of winning, higher than Bristol City's 28.99%, supported by better form and a higher table position.” | ||||
AI pundits reason over our data pack; they have no extra information.