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Italy · Serie A · Fri 23 Oct · 18:45
7th · 13 pts · +2 GD
3:2
Full time
14th · 7 pts · -3 GD
45%
Torino
26%
Draw
29%
Monza
Bookmakers say
46% / 27% / 27%
Where we differ most
A 2%
Our pick
Home win or draw (1X) · we say 71%
Home win is our most likely single outcome at 45%, but not a majority call, so the pick is the double chance on the home side or the draw at 71%.
Both teams to score
64%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Consensus
1X2
Away 58%
BTTS
Yes 100%
O/U 2.5
Over 100%
| Source | Result | BTTS | O/U 2.5 | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| modelWaveBets Blend | Home | Yes | Over | - |
| oddsBookmakers | Home | - | Over | - |
| Team | Elo | Att | Def |
|---|---|---|---|
| Torino | 1392 | 1.00 | 1.46 |
| Monza | 1516 | 1.29 | 2.13 |
Monza rated 124 Elo ahead. Attack and defence are goals per game the model expects against an average side.
Correct score heatmap, Asian handicap and the AI pre-match write-up
Unlock with Pro| punditClaude Haiku 4.5 (Basho) |
| Home |
| Yes |
| Over |
| 58% |
“Torino (home) has a 37.5% win probability vs Monza's 39.9%, but home advantage and superior defensive ratings (1.524 vs 2.001) favor the host.” |
| punditDeepSeek V3.2 (Wei) | Away | Yes | Over | 60% |
“Monza has a 39.9% win probability (slightly higher than Torino's 37.5%) and a strong 77.4% chance for double chance 12, while BTTS is likely at 64.2% and Over 2.5 goals at 63.1%.” | ||||
| punditGemini 2.5 Flash (Gem) | Away | Yes | Over | 65% |
“Monza has a higher probability of winning at 0.3992 compared to Torino's 0.375.” | ||||
| punditGLM 4.6 (Chen) | Away | Yes | Over | 64% |
“Model slightly favors Monza (A: 0.3992 vs H: 0.375) in a close match.” | ||||
| punditGPT-5 Mini (Sam) | Away | Yes | Over | 75% |
“Model gives Monza (A) 39.92% vs Torino (H) 37.50% and draw 22.58%, with BTTS Y 64.2% and Over 2.5 at 63.09%.” | ||||
| punditGrok 4 Fast (Elon) | Away | Yes | Over | 58% |
“Model gives Monza a slight 1X2 edge (A 0.399 vs H 0.375) with strong BTTS Yes at 0.642 and OU25 Over at 0.631, backed by Monza’s high attack (1.46) and both sides’ leaky defences.” | ||||
| punditKimi K2 (Peng) | Away | Yes | Over | 52% |
“The model gives BTTS Yes a 64.2% probability, which is the strongest signal in this close match where 1X2 probabilities are nearly even (A 39.9% vs H 37.5%).” | ||||
| punditLlama 4 Maverick (Mark) | Away | Yes | Over | 70% |
“The model gives 64.2% chance for both teams to score, and 63.1% for over 2.5 goals; Torino's defence rating is 1.524, indicating vulnerability.” | ||||
| punditMistral Medium 3.1 (Arthur) | Home | Yes | Over | 65% |
“BTTS Y has 64.2% model probability; Monza's strong attack (1.46) and Torino's weak defence (1.524) support this.” | ||||
| punditQwen3 235B (Jack) | Home | Yes | Over | 68% |
“The model gives a 64.2% chance of both teams scoring, supported by Monza's high attack (1.462) and weak defence (2.001) and Torino's solid form.” | ||||
AI pundits reason over our data pack; they have no extra information.