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Italy · Serie A · Sat 24 Oct · 16:00
10th · 10 pts · +3 GD
VS
Kick-off
3rd · 17 pts · +13 GD
34%
Napoli
28%
Draw
38%
Roma
Bookmakers say
34% / 28% / 38%
Where we differ most
A 1%
Our pick
Draw or away win (X2) · we say 66%
Away win is our most likely single outcome at 38%, but not a majority call, so the pick is the double chance on the draw or the away side at 66%.
Both teams to score
43%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Consensus
1X2
Away 100%
BTTS
No 82%
O/U 2.5
Under 92%
| Source | Result | BTTS | O/U 2.5 | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| modelWaveBets Blend | Away | No | Under | - |
| oddsBookmakers | Away | - | Over | - |
| Team | Elo | Att | Def |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli | 1525 | 1.32 | 0.85 |
| Roma | 1595 | 1.51 | 0.73 |
Roma rated 70 Elo ahead. Attack and defence are goals per game the model expects against an average side.
Correct score heatmap, Asian handicap and the AI pre-match write-up
Unlock with Pro| punditClaude Haiku 4.5 (Basho) |
| Away |
| Yes |
| Under |
| 58% |
“Roma's model probability of 41.6% away win edges Napoli's 30.2% home win despite Napoli's recent form (2W-1L).” |
| punditDeepSeek V3.2 (Wei) | Away | No | Under | 65% |
“Roma has a higher model win probability (41.6% vs 30.2%) and a stronger Elo rating (1602.8 vs 1532.8), while the model favors Under 2.5 goals (62.6%) and BTTS No (56.6%).” | ||||
| punditGemini 2.5 Flash (Gem) | Away | No | Under | 65% |
“Roma has a significantly higher probability of winning at 41.63% compared to Napoli's 30.21%, and also boasts a stronger attack rating of 1.357 and a better defensive rating of 0.726.” | ||||
| punditGLM 4.6 (Chen) | Away | No | Under | 65% |
“Roma are favored with a 0.4163 win probability and a superior Elo rating of 1602.8 compared to Napoli's 1532.9, making the X2 double chance at 0.6979 highly secure.” | ||||
| punditGPT-5 Mini (Sam) | Away | No | Under | 70% |
“Model gives Roma the highest single outcome chance (A 41.63% vs H 30.21%, D 28.16%) and the X2 double chance is 69.79%, so X2 is the strongest edge.” | ||||
| punditGrok 4 Fast (Elon) | Away | No | Under | 58% |
“Model gives Roma 0.4163 win prob and X2 0.6979, backed by superior elo (1602.8 vs 1532.9), attack/defence ratings and table position (3rd vs 9th).” | ||||
| punditKimi K2 (Peng) | Away | No | Under | 62% |
“Roma's superior defence (0.726 DC rating vs Napoli's 0.911) and strong form (4W-2D-1L) gives them a 41.6% win probability vs Napoli's 30.2%.” | ||||
| punditLlama 4 Maverick (Mark) | Away | No | Under | 70% |
“The model's probability for under 2.5 goals is 0.6257, indicating a relatively high likelihood; Napoli's and Roma's recent form and defensive ratings (0.911 and 0.726 respectively) suggest a potentially low-scoring match.” | ||||
| punditMistral Medium 3.1 (Arthur) | Away | Yes | Under | 65% |
“Roma's model win probability (41.63%) and higher Elo (1602.8) outweigh Napoli's home edge.” | ||||
| punditQwen3 235B (Jack) | Away | No | Under | 72% |
“Our model gives 62.57% chance of under 2.5 goals, supported by Roma's strong defence (defence rating 0.726) and Napoli's inconsistent attack.” | ||||
AI pundits reason over our data pack; they have no extra information.