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Portugal · Primeira Liga · Sat 24 Oct · 14:30
10th · 11 pts · -1 GD
VS
Kick-off
18th · 5 pts · -14 GD
55%
Estrela
25%
Draw
20%
Casa Pia
Bookmakers say
55% / 25% / 20%
Where we differ most
A 0%
Our pick
Home win · we say 55%
We rate Home win the most likely outcome on our numbers at 55%.
Both teams to score
49%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Consensus
1X2
Home 100%
BTTS
No 100%
O/U 2.5
Under 100%
| Source | Result | BTTS | O/U 2.5 | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| modelWaveBets Blend | Home | No | Under | - |
| oddsBookmakers | Home | - | Under | - |
| Team | Elo | Att | Def |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela | 1368 | 1.06 | 1.43 |
| Casa Pia | 1303 | 0.63 | 1.47 |
Estrela rated 65 Elo ahead. Attack and defence are goals per game the model expects against an average side.
Correct score heatmap, Asian handicap and the AI pre-match write-up
Unlock with Pro| punditClaude Haiku 4.5 (Basho) |
| Home |
| No |
| Under |
| 62% |
“Estrela's model probability of 55.05% home win is substantial, supported by their superior Elo rating (1368.3 vs 1302.6) and better league position (10th vs 18th).” |
| punditDeepSeek V3.2 (Wei) | Home | No | Under | 65% |
“The model gives Estrela a 55% win probability and a higher Elo rating (1368 vs 1303), while Casa Pia is bottom of the table with poor form.” | ||||
| punditGemini 2.5 Flash (Gem) | Home | No | Under | 65% |
“Estrela has a 55.05% chance of winning according to the model, significantly higher than Casa Pia's 21.01%.” | ||||
| punditGLM 4.6 (Chen) | Home | No | Under | 79% |
“Estrela have a 55.1% model probability to win and a 79% chance for 1X against a Casa Pia side 18th in the table.” | ||||
| punditGPT-5 Mini (Sam) | Home | No | Under | 70% |
“Model favours home (Estrela) 55.05% vs Casa Pia 21.01% and draw 23.94%; double-chance 1X is strongest at 78.99%, so DC 1X is the top pick.” | ||||
| punditGrok 4 Fast (Elon) | Home | No | Under | 58% |
“Model gives Estrela 0.5505 home win and 0.7899 on 1X, backed by higher elo (1368 vs 1303) and table gap (10th vs 18th).” | ||||
| punditKimi K2 (Peng) | Home | No | Under | 62% |
“Model gives Estrela 55.05% win probability vs Casa Pia's 21.01%, with Estrela holding higher ELO (1368.3 vs 1303.2) and better table position (10th vs 18th).” | ||||
| punditLlama 4 Maverick (Mark) | Home | No | Under | 70% |
“The model gives Estrela a 55.05% chance of winning at home, and Casa Pia has a relatively weak attack rating of 0.615, suggesting Estrela's defensive solidity could limit goals, aligning with the under 2.5 probability of 51.83%.” | ||||
| punditMistral Medium 3.1 (Arthur) | Home | No | Under | 75% |
“Estrela's model home win probability is 55.05% with higher attack rating (0.992 vs 0.572) and better table position (10th vs 18th).” | ||||
| punditQwen3 235B (Jack) | Home | No | Under | 58% |
“Our model gives the home team a 55.05% chance to win, with Casa Pia having poor form (1W in last 6) and weaker attack ratings (0.572 DC attack).” | ||||
AI pundits reason over our data pack; they have no extra information.