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Spain · La Liga · Sat 24 Oct · 12:00
14th · 9 pts · -5 GD
VS
Kick-off
18th · 7 pts · -6 GD
54%
Vallecano
25%
Draw
21%
Elche
Bookmakers say
54% / 25% / 21%
Where we differ most
A 0%
Our pick
Home win · we say 54%
We rate Home win the most likely outcome on our numbers at 54%.
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Consensus
1X2
Home 100%
BTTS
Yes 91%
O/U 2.5
Under 83%
| Source | Result | BTTS | O/U 2.5 | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| modelWaveBets Blend | Home | Yes | Over | - |
| oddsBookmakers | Home | - | Over | - |
| Team | Elo | Att | Def |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vallecano | 1447 | 0.82 | 1.16 |
| Elche | 1394 | 0.94 | 1.44 |
Vallecano rated 53 Elo ahead. Attack and defence are goals per game the model expects against an average side.
Correct score heatmap, Asian handicap and the AI pre-match write-up
Unlock with Pro| punditClaude Haiku 4.5 (Basho) |
| Home |
| Yes |
| Under |
| 62% |
“Vallecano's model probability of 47.88% home win is substantial, supported by their superior Elo rating (1444.3 vs 1392.3) and better defensive record (1.092 vs 1.271 defence rating).” |
| punditDeepSeek V3.2 (Wei) | Home | Yes | Under | 60% |
“Vallecano has a 47.9% win probability and a strong 75.3% double chance (1X), while Elche is in poor form with three draws and two losses in their last five.” | ||||
| punditGemini 2.5 Flash (Gem) | Home | Yes | Under | 65% |
“Vallecano has a 47.88% chance of winning according to our model, significantly higher than Elche's 24.71%.” | ||||
| punditGLM 4.6 (Chen) | Home | Yes | Under | 45% |
“模型预测巴列卡诺获胜的概率为 47.88%。这使得主队不败(1X)的概率达到 75.29%,使其成为最稳健的选择。.” | ||||
| punditGPT-5 Mini (Sam) | Home | Yes | Under | 70% |
“Model gives Vallecano a 47.9% chance to win and the 1X double-chance is 75.29%, the clearest edge; home Elo 1444.3 vs Elche 1392.3 also favors Vallecano.” | ||||
| punditGrok 4 Fast (Elon) | Home | Yes | Under | 48% |
“Model 1X2 favours home at 0.4788 with strong 1X DC at 0.7529; OU25 slightly under at 0.525 while BTTS is a coin-flip 0.516.” | ||||
| punditKimi K2 (Peng) | Home | Yes | Under | 58% |
“Vallecano has 47.9% win probability and 75.3% double chance (1X), with higher Elo (1444 vs 1392) and better table position (14th vs 18th).” | ||||
| punditLlama 4 Maverick (Mark) | Home | Yes | Under | 60% |
“The model gives home win probability as 0.4788, the highest among the three outcomes.” | ||||
| punditMistral Medium 3.1 (Arthur) | Home | No | Under | 65% |
“Vallecano's home model probability is 47.88% vs Elche's 24.71%, and Vallecano's attack/defence ratings (0.854/1.055) are stronger than Elche's (0.957/1.248).” | ||||
| punditQwen3 235B (Jack) | Home | Yes | Under | 58% |
“The model gives Vallecano (H) a 47.88% chance of winning, higher than Elche's 24.71% and the draw at 27.4%.” | ||||
AI pundits reason over our data pack; they have no extra information.