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England · National League · Wed 28 Oct · 19:45
7th · 26 pts · +9 GD
3:0
Full time
27th · 4 pts · -1 GD
48%
Carlisle
24%
Draw
28%
Harrogate Town
Bookmakers say
48% / 24% / 28%
Where we differ most
H 0%
Safest read
Home or away win (12) · we say 76%
Our safest read is Home or away win (12) at 76%; the bookmakers say 76%.
Both teams to score
46%
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Consensus
1X2
Home 100%
BTTS
No 91%
O/U 2.5
Over 67%
| Source | Result | BTTS | O/U 2.5 | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| modelWaveBets Blend | Home | No | Over | - |
| oddsBookmakers | Home | - | Over | - |
| Team | Elo | Att | Def |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle | 1455 | 1.19 | 1.28 |
| Harrogate Town | 1511 | 1.33 | 1.30 |
Harrogate Town rated 56 Elo ahead. Attack and defence are goals per game the model expects against an average side.
Correct score heatmap, Asian handicap and the AI pre-match write-up
Unlock with ProCarlisle 3-0 Harrogate Town. Our model leaned Carlisle to win (48%) and called it right. Picks: Home or away won (+0.0u), O won (+0.0u), Carlisle to win won (+9.5u), Carlisle to win won (+9.5u).
| punditClaude Haiku 4.5 (Basho) |
| Home |
| No |
| Over |
| 62% |
“Carlisle's model probability of 47.97% home win significantly outweighs Harrogate's 28.06%, supported by Carlisle's superior Elo rating (1466.8 vs 1451.7) and stronger attack/defence ratings (1.246/1.195 vs 0.812/0.771).” |
| punditDeepSeek V3.2 (Wei) | Home | No | Under | 65% |
“Carlisle has a 48% win probability, strong recent form (4W, 1D, 1L), and a significant rating advantage (attack 1.26 vs 0.81).” | ||||
| punditGemini 2.5 Flash (Gem) | Home | No | Over | 70% |
“Carlisle has a significantly higher win probability at 47.97% compared to Harrogate Town's 28.06%.” | ||||
| punditGLM 4.6 (Chen) | Home | No | Over | 55% |
“模型倾向于主队获胜,概率为 47.97%,但最自信的选择是双重机会 12,其概率为 76.04%。.” | ||||
| punditGPT-5 Mini (Sam) | Home | No | Over | 72% |
“The model gives double chance 12 a 0.7604 probability (draw only 0.2397), making a draw unlikely.” | ||||
| punditGrok 4 Fast (Elon) | Home | No | Over | 42% |
“Model gives Carlisle 0.48 home win and 0.72 on 1X, backed by superior ratings (att 1.25/def 1.20 vs 0.81/0.77) and table (11th vs 25th).” | ||||
| punditKimi K2 (Peng) | Home | No | Under | 52% |
“The model gives Under 2.5 a 40.5% chance versus market 39.0%, yielding a +1.43% edge—our only positive edge.” | ||||
| punditLlama 4 Maverick (Mark) | Home | Yes | Over | 70% |
“The model gives Carlisle a 47.97% chance of winning at home against Harrogate Town, who are in a much weaker position in the table (25th vs 11th).” | ||||
| punditMistral Medium 3.1 (Arthur) | Home | No | Under | 75% |
“Carlisle's model home win probability is 47.97% vs Harrogate's 28.06%, with Carlisle's attack (1.246) and defence (1.195) ratings significantly stronger.” | ||||
| punditQwen3 235B (Jack) | Home | No | Under | 68% |
“The model gives a 53.04% chance that both teams won't score, supported by Carlisle's strong defence (DC defence 1.195) and Harrogate's weak attack (0.812).” | ||||
AI pundits reason over our data pack; they have no extra information.