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Italy · Serie A · Wed 28 Oct · 17:30
5th · 21 pts · +9 GD
2:4
Full time
9th · 14 pts · +1 GD
59%
AC Milan
24%
Draw
18%
Bologna
Bookmakers say
58% / 25% / 17%
Where we differ most
H 1%
Safest read
Home win or draw (1X) · we say 83%
Our safest read is Home win or draw (1X) at 83%; the bookmakers say 83%. The value angle is Over 2.5 goals: we say 51% against the market's 46%.
Both teams to score
44%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Consensus
1X2
Home 100%
BTTS
No 100%
O/U 2.5
Over 58%
| Source | Result | BTTS | O/U 2.5 | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| modelWaveBets Blend | Home | No | Over | - |
| oddsBookmakers | Home | - | Over | - |
| Team | Elo | Att | Def |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 1523 | 0.81 | 0.83 |
| Bologna | 1426 | 1.02 | 1.10 |
AC Milan rated 97 Elo ahead. Attack and defence are goals per game the model expects against an average side.
Correct score heatmap, Asian handicap and the AI pre-match write-up
Unlock with ProAC Milan 2-4 Bologna. Our model leaned AC Milan to win (59%) and got this one wrong. Picks: Home or away won (+0.0u), AC Milan to win lost (0.0u), O won (+0.0u), AC Milan to win lost (-10.0u).
| punditClaude Haiku 4.5 (Basho) |
| Home |
| No |
| Over |
| 62% |
“AC Milan's model probability of 58.87% for home win significantly outweighs Bologna's 17.52%, supported by Milan's superior Elo rating (1545.8 vs 1435.3) and stronger attack rating (1.142 vs 0.966).” |
| punditDeepSeek V3.2 (Wei) | Home | No | Under | 60% |
“Our model gives BTTS No a 55.8% probability, and Bologna's strong defensive rating (1.184) suggests they could limit Milan's scoring, while Milan's recent clean sheet supports a low-scoring game.” | ||||
| punditGemini 2.5 Flash (Gem) | Home | No | Under | 70% |
“AC Milan has a strong home win probability of 58.87% according to our model, significantly higher than Bologna's 17.52%.” | ||||
| punditGLM 4.6 (Chen) | Home | No | Over | 62% |
“AC Milan 是明显的热门,我们的模型给出他们 58.9% 的获胜机会。因此,米兰不败(1X)是最有信心的投注,概率为 82.5%。.” | ||||
| punditGPT-5 Mini (Sam) | Home | No | Over | 75% |
“The model gives AC Milan a 58.87% win probability (D 23.61%, A 17.52%) and the 1X double chance is 82.50%, the strongest, most reliable edge.” | ||||
| punditGrok 4 Fast (Elon) | Home | No | Under | 58% |
“Model gives Milan 58.9% win and 82.5% 1X vs Bologna’s weaker Elo (1435 vs 1546) and 13th place; BTTS N at 55.8% and OU25 essentially a coin-flip (U 49.1%, +1pp edge) keep sides lean.” | ||||
| punditKimi K2 (Peng) | Home | No | Under | 52% |
“AC Milan has 58.87% model probability to win vs 59.77% market, showing slight negative edge (-0.009), but combined with draw (23.61%) gives 82.5% for 1X double chance.” | ||||
| punditLlama 4 Maverick (Mark) | Home | No | Over | 75% |
“The model gives AC Milan a 58.87% chance of winning (H: 0.5887), and the over 2.5 goals market has a 50.86% probability (O: 0.5086), both relatively strong indicators; Bologna has a weaker attack and defence rating compared to AC Milan.” | ||||
| punditMistral Medium 3.1 (Arthur) | Home | No | Over | 75% |
“AC Milan's model probability for home win is 58.87% with strong attack (1.138) and higher Elo (1545.8).” | ||||
| punditQwen3 235B (Jack) | Home | No | Under | 68% |
“AC Milan has a strong attack (1.138) and solid defence (0.937), while Bologna struggles offensively (0.934) and is weak defensively (1.184).” | ||||
AI pundits reason over our data pack; they have no extra information.