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Italy · Serie A · Thu 29 Oct · 17:30
6th · 20 pts · +10 GD
5:1
Full time
14th · 9 pts · -10 GD
58%
Frosinone
22%
Draw
20%
Lecce
Bookmakers say
56% / 22% / 22%
Where we differ most
H 2%
Safest read
Home win or draw (1X) · we say 80%
Our safest read is Home win or draw (1X) at 80%; the bookmakers say 78%. The value angle is Under 2.5 goals: we say 35% against the market's 29%.
Both teams to score
49%
Over 2.5 goals
65%
Consensus
1X2
Home 100%
BTTS
Yes 64%
O/U 2.5
Over 92%
| Source | Result | BTTS | O/U 2.5 | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| modelWaveBets Blend | Home | No | Over | - |
| oddsBookmakers | Home | - | Over | - |
| Team | Elo | Att | Def |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone | 1605 | 1.12 | 1.01 |
| Lecce | 1360 | 0.65 | 1.27 |
Frosinone rated 246 Elo ahead. Attack and defence are goals per game the model expects against an average side.
Correct score heatmap, Asian handicap and the AI pre-match write-up
Unlock with ProFrosinone 5-1 Lecce. Our model leaned Frosinone to win (58%) and called it right. Picks: Home or draw won (+0.0u), Frosinone to win won (+0.0u), O won (+0.0u), Frosinone to win won (+6.6u).
| punditClaude Haiku 4.5 (Basho) |
| Home |
| Yes |
| Over |
| 72% |
“Frosinone's model probability of 58.16% for a home win significantly outweighs the 0.06% edge, supported by their superior Elo rating (1477 vs 1368) and attacking strength (1.66 vs 0.65).” |
| punditDeepSeek V3.2 (Wei) | Home | Yes | Over | 58% |
“The model gives Frosinone a 58.2% chance to win, supported by their strong home form (three wins in last four) and superior attack rating (1.66 vs 0.648).” | ||||
| punditGemini 2.5 Flash (Gem) | Home | Yes | Over | 75% |
“Frosinone has a strong home advantage with a 58.16% model probability for a home win, significantly higher than Lecce's 19.94% away win probability.” | ||||
| punditGLM 4.6 (Chen) | Home | Yes | Over | 65% |
“Frosinone has a strong attack rating of 1.645 while both teams have poor defence ratings, suggesting goals.” | ||||
| punditGPT-5 Mini (Sam) | Home | No | Over | 80% |
“Model gives Frosinone a 58.16% win probability (H 0.5816 vs Lecce 0.1994 and D 0.219) and the 1X double-chance is 80.06%, so DC 1X is the strongest single play.” | ||||
| punditGrok 4 Fast (Elon) | Home | No | Over | 58% |
“Model gives Frosinone a clear 0.5816 home win probability backed by superior attack rating (1.66 vs 0.648) and table position (6th vs 12th).” | ||||
| punditKimi K2 (Peng) | Home | Yes | Over | 62% |
“Frosinone's model probability of 58.16% vs market 58.1% shows slight value, supported by superior attack ratings (1.66 vs 0.648) and 6th place standing vs Lecce's 12th.” | ||||
| punditLlama 4 Maverick (Mark) | Home | Yes | Over | 70% |
“The model gives Frosinone a 58.1% chance of winning at home against Lecce, who have a weaker attack and defence rating (0.625 and 1.327 vs 1.645 and 1.518).” | ||||
| punditMistral Medium 3.1 (Arthur) | Home | Yes | Over | 75% |
“Frosinone's model probability for home win is 58.16% with strong attack (1.66) and defence (1.562) ratings.” | ||||
| punditQwen3 235B (Jack) | Home | No | Under | 65% |
“The model gives Frosinone a 58.16% chance of winning, supported by their stronger form and higher attack rating (1.66 vs Lecce's 0.648).” | ||||
AI pundits reason over our data pack; they have no extra information.