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England · League Two · Sat 31 Oct · 15:00
26th · 4 pts · +5 GD
1:1
Full time
27th · 4 pts · +2 GD
46%
Accrington ST
28%
Draw
26%
Northampton
Bookmakers say
40% / 29% / 32%
Where we differ most
H +6%
Safest read
Home win or draw (1X) · we say 74%
Our safest read is Home win or draw (1X) at 74%; the bookmakers say 68%. The value angle is H:-0.25 at 1.79: we say 53%.
Both teams to score
53%
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Consensus
1X2
Home 100%
BTTS
Yes 78%
O/U 2.5
Under 100%
| Source | Result | BTTS | O/U 2.5 | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| modelWaveBets Blend | Home | Yes | Under | - |
| oddsBookmakers | Home | - | Under | - |
| Team | Elo | Att | Def |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington ST | 1441 | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| Northampton | 1381 | 0.35 | 0.60 |
Accrington ST rated 59 Elo ahead. Attack and defence are goals per game the model expects against an average side.
Correct score heatmap, Asian handicap and the AI pre-match write-up
Unlock with ProAccrington ST 1-1 Northampton. Our model leaned Accrington ST to win (46%) and got this one wrong. Picks: H:-0.25 pushed, Home or draw won (+0.0u), U won (+0.0u), H:-0.25 pushed.
| punditDeepSeek V3.2 (Wei) |
| Home |
| Yes |
| Under |
| 54% |
“The model gives Accrington a 46.2% win probability with a slight positive edge, and the double chance '1X' at 74.5% is our published best bet.” |
| punditGemini 2.5 Flash (Gem) | Home | Yes | Under | 65% |
“Accrington ST has a strong home win probability of 0.4619 according to our model, significantly higher than Northampton's away win probability of 0.2556.” | ||||
| punditGLM 4.6 (Chen) | Home | No | Under | 75% |
“The model's Double Chance 1X probability of 0.7446 is the strongest signal, indicating a home win or draw is very likely.” | ||||
| punditGPT-5 Mini (Sam) | Home | Yes | Under | 70% |
“Model gives Accrington 46.2% vs Northampton 25.6% (draw 28.2%) and the DC 1X probability is 74.46%, so Home/Draw (1X) is the safest single play.” | ||||
| punditKimi K2 (Peng) | Home | Yes | Under | 52% |
“Model gives Accrington ST 46.2% win probability vs 45.6% market, with DC 1X at 74.5% probability.” | ||||
| punditLlama 4 Maverick (Mark) | Home | Yes | Under | 60% |
“The model gives Accrington ST a 46.19% chance of winning at home, with a slight edge over the market probability; both teams have relatively weak defence ratings (0.2), but Accrington ST have a stronger attack rating (3.156 vs 1.173).” | ||||
| punditMistral Medium 3.1 (Arthur) | Home | Yes | Under | 65% |
“Model gives Accrington ST 46.19% home win probability, with strong attack (3.112) vs Northampton's weak defence (0.2).” | ||||
| punditQwen3 235B (Jack) | Home | No | Under | 65% |
“The model gives Accrington ST a 46.19% chance to win, slightly above the bookmakers' 45.59%, with a small positive edge of 0.006.” | ||||
AI pundits reason over our data pack; they have no extra information.