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England · Championship · Wed 4 Nov · 19:45
15th · 18 pts · -2 GD
2:0
Full time
2nd · 29 pts · +11 GD
24%
Wrexham
24%
Draw
51%
Middlesbrough
Bookmakers say
21% / 25% / 54%
Where we differ most
H +3%
Safest read
Home or away win (12) · we say 76%
Our safest read is Home or away win (12) at 76%; the bookmakers say 75%. The value angle is Over 2.5 goals: we say 58% against the market's 52%.
Both teams to score
59%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Consensus
1X2
Away 100%
BTTS
Yes 100%
O/U 2.5
Over 100%
| Source | Result | BTTS | O/U 2.5 | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| modelWaveBets Blend | Away | Yes | Over | - |
| oddsBookmakers | Away | - | Over | - |
| Team | Elo | Att | Def |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham | 1450 | 1.04 | 1.31 |
| Middlesbrough | 1543 | 1.20 | 1.05 |
Middlesbrough rated 93 Elo ahead. Attack and defence are goals per game the model expects against an average side.
Correct score heatmap, Asian handicap and the AI pre-match write-up
Unlock with ProWrexham 2-0 Middlesbrough. Our model leaned Middlesbrough to win (51%) and got this one wrong. Picks: A:0.75 lost (-10.0u), Home or away won (+0.0u), Middlesbrough to win lost (0.0u), O lost (0.0u).
| punditClaude Haiku 4.5 (Basho) |
| Away |
| Yes |
| Over |
| 62% |
“Middlesbrough's superior form (4W-1D-1L vs Wrexham's 2W-1D-3L) and significant ELO advantage (1571.6 vs 1443.1) support the away win despite model showing only 2% edge.” |
| punditDeepSeek V3.2 (Wei) | Away | Yes | Over | 65% |
“Middlesbrough's model probability (51.5%) and strong form (4W-2D last 6) outweigh Wrexham's home edge, and BTTS-Yes (58.6%) aligns with both teams' recent scoring patterns.” | ||||
| punditGemini 2.5 Flash (Gem) | Away | Yes | Over | 70% |
“Middlesbrough has a strong away form with 4 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 games, and our model gives them a 51.46% chance of winning.” | ||||
| punditGPT-5 Mini (Sam) | Away | Yes | Over | 75% |
“The model gives Middlesbrough 51.46% (A=0.5146) vs Wrexham 24.42% and draw 24.12%, and the DC X2 probability is 75.62% (model=0.7562), the strongest single conviction.” | ||||
| punditLlama 4 Maverick (Mark) | Away | Yes | Over | 70% |
“The model predicts 57.97% chance of over 2.5 goals, and the bookmakers' odds imply 58.94% (edge: -0.97%).” | ||||
| punditQwen3 235B (Jack) | Away | Yes | Over | 72% |
“Middlesbrough have a strong attack (1.3) and superior ELO (1571.6) versus Wrexham's weak defence (1.319) and low table position (19th).” | ||||
AI pundits reason over our data pack; they have no extra information.