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Germany · Bundesliga 1 · Sun 8 Nov · 16:30
4th · 16 pts · +8 GD
VS
Kick-off
16th · 7 pts · -12 GD
65%
Freiburg
20%
Draw
15%
Union Berlin
Bookmakers say
65% / 20% / 15%
Where we differ most
A 0%
Safest read
Home win or draw (1X) · we say 85%
Our safest read is Home win or draw (1X) at 85%; the bookmakers say 85%.
Both teams to score
54%
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Consensus
1X2
Home 100%
BTTS
Yes 100%
O/U 2.5
Over 100%
| Source | Result | BTTS | O/U 2.5 | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| modelWaveBets Blend | Home | Yes | Over | - |
| oddsBookmakers | Home | - | Over | - |
| Team | Elo | Att | Def |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freiburg | 1516 | 1.05 | 1.35 |
| Union Berlin | 1390 | 0.80 | 1.68 |
Freiburg rated 127 Elo ahead. Attack and defence are goals per game the model expects against an average side.
Correct score heatmap, Asian handicap and the AI pre-match write-up
Unlock with Pro| punditClaude Haiku 4.5 (Basho) |
| Home |
| Yes |
| Over |
| 72% |
“Freiburg's model probability of 64.68% home win is significantly stronger than Union Berlin's 14.98%, supported by Freiburg's superior Elo rating (1480.9 vs 1370.7) and table position (3rd vs 16th).” |
| punditDeepSeek V3.2 (Wei) | Home | Yes | Over | 65% |
“Our model gives Freiburg a 65% chance to win (0.6501) and they are 3rd vs Union Berlin's 16th, but Union's strong defence (rating 1.48) and recent draws suggest a close game.” | ||||
| punditGemini 2.5 Flash (Gem) | Home | Yes | Over | 65% |
“Freiburg has a strong home win probability of 0.6468 according to our model, significantly higher than the market's 0.6501.” | ||||
| punditGPT-5 Mini (Sam) | Home | Yes | Over | 80% |
“Model gives Freiburg a 64.68% win probability (Union 14.98%) and the 1X double-chance is 85.02%, making 1X the clearest edge.” | ||||
| punditLlama 4 Maverick (Mark) | Home | Yes | Over | 80% |
“The model gives Freiburg a 64.68% chance of winning (H: 0.6468), with a relatively small edge over the market.” | ||||
| punditQwen3 235B (Jack) | Home | Yes | Over | 68% |
“Our model gives BTTS a 54.2% chance versus no edge in the market, and both teams have shown recent scoring vulnerability.” | ||||
AI pundits reason over our data pack; they have no extra information.