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Germany · Bundesliga 2 · Fri 6 Nov · 17:30
14th · 11 pts · -5 GD
3:0
Full time
9th · 12 pts · -6 GD
49%
Dresden
25%
Draw
26%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Bookmakers say
49% / 25% / 26%
Where we differ most
H 0%
Safest read
Home or away win (12) · we say 75%
Our safest read is Home or away win (12) at 75%; the bookmakers say 75%.
Both teams to score
63%
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Consensus
1X2
Home 100%
BTTS
Yes 100%
O/U 2.5
Over 100%
| Source | Result | BTTS | O/U 2.5 | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| modelWaveBets Blend | Home | Yes | Over | - |
| oddsBookmakers | Home | - | Over | - |
| Team | Elo | Att | Def |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dresden | 1429 | 1.06 | 1.48 |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 1432 | 0.81 | 1.38 |
SpVgg Greuther Fürth rated 3 Elo ahead. Attack and defence are goals per game the model expects against an average side.
Correct score heatmap, Asian handicap and the AI pre-match write-up
Unlock with ProDresden 3-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Our model leaned Dresden to win (49%) and called it right. Picks: H:-0.5 won (+1.2u), Both teams to score lost (0.0u), Home or away won (+0.0u), Dresden to win won (+0.0u).
| punditClaude Haiku 4.5 (Basho) |
| Home |
| Yes |
| Over |
| 62% |
“Dresden's home advantage and superior defensive rating (1.49 vs Fürth's 1.72) support a home win at 50.9% model probability with +0.17% edge.” |
| punditDeepSeek V3.2 (Wei) | Home | Yes | Over | 60% |
“Our model gives Dresden a 50.9% win probability and a 74.7% double chance (1X), supported by their stronger home form and higher Elo rating (1395.9 vs 1381.4).” | ||||
| punditGemini 2.5 Flash (Gem) | Home | Yes | Over | 65% |
“Dresden has a 50.9% chance of winning according to our model, significantly higher than the away team's 25.3%.” | ||||
| punditGPT-5 Mini (Sam) | Home | Yes | Over | 76% |
“Model gives Dresden a 50.9% chance to win (H=0.509) while BTTS is 63.05% and Over 2.5 is 60.91%.” | ||||
| punditLlama 4 Maverick (Mark) | Home | Yes | Over | 70% |
“The model predicts 60.9% chance of over 2.5 goals (OU25), and home win probability is 50.9%.” | ||||
| punditQwen3 235B (Jack) | Home | Yes | Over | 85% |
“Our model gives a 60.91% chance of over 2.5 goals, with a positive edge of +0.0023 against the market.” | ||||
AI pundits reason over our data pack; they have no extra information.