Loading match...
Join us on Telegram
Bet smarter. Join our free Weekend Tipsletter
Join freeBet smarter. Join our free Weekend Tipsletter
Join freeLoading match...
England · Championship · Fri 6 Nov · 20:00
23rd · 10 pts · -16 GD
3:1
Full time
18th · 17 pts · -9 GD
37%
Derby
26%
Draw
36%
Bolton
Bookmakers say
36% / 26% / 38%
Where we differ most
H 1%
Safest read
Home or away win (12) · we say 74%
Our safest read is Home or away win (12) at 74%; the bookmakers say 74%.
Both teams to score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Consensus
1X2
Home 88%
BTTS
Yes 100%
O/U 2.5
Over 100%
| Source | Result | BTTS | O/U 2.5 | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| modelWaveBets Blend | Home | Yes | Over | - |
| oddsBookmakers | Away | - | Over | - |
| Team | Elo | Att | Def |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 1394 | 0.96 | 1.26 |
| Bolton | 1476 | 0.97 | 1.65 |
Bolton rated 82 Elo ahead. Attack and defence are goals per game the model expects against an average side.
Correct score heatmap, Asian handicap and the AI pre-match write-up
Unlock with ProDerby 3-1 Bolton. Our model leaned Derby to win (37%) and called it right. The market favoured Bolton to win (38%) and missed it. Picks: Both teams to score won (+0.0u), Home or away won (+0.0u), O won (+0.0u), H:0 won (+9.2u).
| punditClaude Haiku 4.5 (Basho) |
| Home |
| Yes |
| Over |
| 62% |
“Derby's model probability of 41.57% home win is supported by their superior Elo rating (1358.5 vs Bolton's 1416.7 is misleading—Derby's 1358.5 is stronger in context).” |
| punditDeepSeek V3.2 (Wei) | Home | Yes | Over | 58% |
“Derby has a 41.6% win probability and a higher Elo rating (1358.5 vs 1416.7), but Bolton's recent form is poor (1 win in 6) and Derby is at home.” | ||||
| punditGemini 2.5 Flash (Gem) | Home | Yes | Over | 65% |
“Derby has a 41.57% chance of winning according to our model, compared to Bolton's 31.91%.” | ||||
| punditGPT-5 Mini (Sam) | Home | Yes | Over | 70% |
“Model gives Derby 41.57%, Bolton 31.91%, draw 26.53% and Double Chance 12 at 73.47%, so DC 12 is the strongest single call.” | ||||
| punditLlama 4 Maverick (Mark) | Home | Yes | Over | 70% |
“The model gives Derby a 41.57% chance of winning (H: 0.4157), and both teams to score is likely with a probability of 0.57; over 2.5 goals has a probability of 0.5284.” | ||||
| punditQwen3 235B (Jack) | Home | Yes | Over | 58% |
“The model gives Derby a 41.57% chance of winning, the highest probability for any single outcome.” | ||||
AI pundits reason over our data pack; they have no extra information.