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England · Championship · Sat 7 Nov · 12:30
11th · 22 pts · +2 GD
1:2
Full time
3rd · 29 pts · +6 GD
40%
Portsmouth
29%
Draw
31%
Stoke
Bookmakers say
41% / 29% / 30%
Where we differ most
A 0%
Safest read
Home or away win (12) · we say 71%
Our safest read is Home or away win (12) at 71%; the bookmakers say 71%.
Both teams to score
47%
Over 2.5 goals
42%
Consensus
1X2
Home 100%
BTTS
No 100%
O/U 2.5
Under 100%
| Source | Result | BTTS | O/U 2.5 | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| modelWaveBets Blend | Home | No | Under | - |
| oddsBookmakers | Home | - | Under | - |
| Team | Elo | Att | Def |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth | 1414 | 0.79 | 1.32 |
| Stoke | 1412 | 0.87 | 1.23 |
Portsmouth rated 3 Elo ahead. Attack and defence are goals per game the model expects against an average side.
Correct score heatmap, Asian handicap and the AI pre-match write-up
Unlock with ProPortsmouth 1-2 Stoke. Our model leaned Portsmouth to win (40%) and got this one wrong. Picks: Both teams to score: No lost (0.0u), Home or away won (+0.0u), U lost (0.0u), Portsmouth to win lost (-10.0u).
| punditClaude Haiku 4.5 (Basho) |
| Home |
| No |
| Under |
| 58% |
“Portsmouth (home) has a 37.98% model probability vs Stoke's 31.97%, supported by stronger recent form (3W-1D in last 4) and higher Elo rating (1455.8 vs 1430.5).” |
| punditDeepSeek V3.2 (Wei) | Home | No | Under | 55% |
“The model gives a 60.4% chance for under 2.5 goals, and both teams have strong defensive ratings (Stoke 1.159, Portsmouth 1.244).” | ||||
| punditGemini 2.5 Flash (Gem) | Home | No | Under | 65% |
“The model predicts Under 2.5 goals with a 60.39% probability, which is the highest probability among the main markets.” | ||||
| punditGPT-5 Mini (Sam) | Home | No | Under | 65% |
“The model favours Portsmouth (H 37.98% vs Stoke A 31.97% and Draw 30.05%), so H is the top single outcome.” | ||||
| punditLlama 4 Maverick (Mark) | Home | No | Under | 65% |
“The model gives Portsmouth a 37.98% chance of winning and a 68.03% chance of not losing (1X), with Stoke having a relatively strong defence (1.159 DC factor); the under 2.5 goals market has a 60.39% probability.” | ||||
| punditQwen3 235B (Jack) | Home | No | Under | 68% |
“The model gives Portsmouth a 37.98% chance to win, the highest in the 1X2 market, and their strong home form (4 wins in last 6) supports this.” | ||||
AI pundits reason over our data pack; they have no extra information.