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England · Championship · Sat 7 Nov · 15:00
1st · 29 pts · +14 GD
2:1
Full time
7th · 26 pts · +4 GD
51%
Birmingham
26%
Draw
23%
Swansea
Bookmakers say
52% / 25% / 22%
Where we differ most
A 1%
Safest read
Home win or draw (1X) · we say 77%
Our safest read is Home win or draw (1X) at 77%; the bookmakers say 78%.
Both teams to score
48%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Consensus
1X2
Home 100%
BTTS
No 100%
O/U 2.5
Under 88%
| Source | Result | BTTS | O/U 2.5 | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| modelWaveBets Blend | Home | No | Under | - |
| oddsBookmakers | Home | - | Over | - |
| Team | Elo | Att | Def |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 1465 | 0.94 | 1.11 |
| Swansea | 1513 | 0.98 | 1.11 |
Swansea rated 48 Elo ahead. Attack and defence are goals per game the model expects against an average side.
Correct score heatmap, Asian handicap and the AI pre-match write-up
Unlock with ProBirmingham 2-1 Swansea. Our model leaned Birmingham to win (51%) and called it right. Picks: Both teams to score: No lost (0.0u), Home or draw won (+0.0u), Birmingham to win won (+0.0u), U lost (0.0u).
| punditClaude Haiku 4.5 (Basho) |
| Home |
| No |
| Under |
| 62% |
“Birmingham (home) has a 45.8% win probability with superior Elo rating (1516 vs 1484) and better recent form (2W-1L vs 2W-3L).” |
| punditDeepSeek V3.2 (Wei) | Home | No | Under | 65% |
“The model gives Birmingham a 45.8% chance to win, but the Under 2.5 goals probability is stronger at 57.2%, supported by Swansea's weak attack rating (0.962) and Birmingham's solid defence (1.023).” | ||||
| punditGemini 2.5 Flash (Gem) | Home | No | Under | 65% |
“Our model gives Birmingham a 45.76% chance of winning, which is the highest probability for any outcome.” | ||||
| punditGPT-5 Mini (Sam) | Home | No | Under | 72% |
“Model favours Birmingham to win (H 0.4576 vs A 0.2579, D 0.2844) and double-chance 1X is 0.7421, making 1X the strongest single play.” | ||||
| punditLlama 4 Maverick (Mark) | Home | No | Under | 65% |
“The model gives Birmingham a 45.76% chance of winning (H: 0.4576) and a 74.21% chance of not losing (1X: 0.7421), indicating a likely home win or draw; the probability of under 2.5 goals is 57.22% (U: 0.5722), supporting the under bet.” | ||||
| punditQwen3 235B (Jack) | Home | No | Under | 68% |
“The model gives a 57.22% chance of under 2.5 goals, supported by Swansea's poor form and Birmingham's moderate attack.” | ||||
AI pundits reason over our data pack; they have no extra information.