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Italy · Serie A · Sun 8 Nov · 14:00
12th · 13 pts · -4 GD
VS
Kick-off
5th · 21 pts · +9 GD
22%
Genoa
26%
Draw
52%
AC Milan
Bookmakers say
20% / 26% / 53%
Where we differ most
H 1%
Safest read
Draw or away win (X2) · we say 78%
Our safest read is Draw or away win (X2) at 78%; the bookmakers say 80%.
Both teams to score
46%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
| Team | Elo | Att | Def |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 1371 | 0.90 | 1.27 |
| AC Milan | 1523 | 0.81 | 0.83 |
AC Milan rated 152 Elo ahead. Attack and defence are goals per game the model expects against an average side.
Correct score heatmap, Asian handicap and the AI pre-match write-up
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1X2
Away 100%
BTTS
No 100%
O/U 2.5
Under 100%
| Source | Result | BTTS | O/U 2.5 | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| modelWaveBets Blend | Away | No | Under | - |
| oddsBookmakers | Away | - | Under | - |
| punditClaude Haiku 4.5 (Basho) | Away | No | Under | 62% |
“AC Milan's model probability of 52.06% away win significantly outweighs Genoa's 21.69% home win despite the bookmakers' tighter 53.38% vs 20.30% split.” | ||||
| punditDeepSeek V3.2 (Wei) | Away | No | Under | 60% |
“The model gives a 55.8% probability for Under 2.5 goals, which aligns with Genoa's strong defensive rating (1.309) and AC Milan's recent inconsistent form.” | ||||
| punditGemini 2.5 Flash (Gem) | Away | No | Under | 65% |
“AC Milan has a significantly higher model probability of winning at 0.5206 compared to Genoa's 0.2169.” | ||||
| punditGPT-5 Mini (Sam) | Away | No | Under | 78% |
“The model gives AC Milan 52.06% vs Genoa 21.69% (draw 26.25%); BTTS No 54.53% and Under 2.5 at 55.83%.” | ||||
| punditLlama 4 Maverick (Mark) | Away | No | Under | 70% |
“The model's probability for under 2.5 goals is 0.5583, and the away team has a higher probability of winning (0.5338) with a relatively strong defence (defence rating: 0.966 and 1.021 for away and home teams respectively); both teams have inconsistent form.” | ||||
| punditQwen3 235B (Jack) | Away | No | Under | 68% |
“Our model gives a 55.83% chance of under 2.5 goals, with a positive edge of +0.0099 against the market.” | ||||
AI pundits reason over our data pack; they have no extra information.