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Italy · Serie B · Fri 6 Nov · 19:30
2nd · 20 pts · +10 GD
1:1
Full time
1st · 27 pts · +12 GD
33%
Ascoli
28%
Draw
39%
Palermo
Bookmakers say
30% / 26% / 43%
Where we differ most
H +3%
Safest read
Home or away win (12) · we say 72%
Our safest read is Home or away win (12) at 72%; the bookmakers say 74%. The value angle is H:0.25 at 1.84: we say 54%.
Both teams to score
49%
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Consensus
1X2
Away 75%
BTTS
No 57%
O/U 2.5
Over 88%
| Source | Result | BTTS | O/U 2.5 | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| modelWaveBets Blend | Away | No | Over | - |
| oddsBookmakers | Away | - | Over | - |
| Team | Elo | Att | Def |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ascoli | 1455 | 0.93 | 0.59 |
| Palermo | 1580 | 1.34 | 0.85 |
Palermo rated 125 Elo ahead. Attack and defence are goals per game the model expects against an average side.
Correct score heatmap, Asian handicap and the AI pre-match write-up
Unlock with ProAscoli 1-1 Palermo. Our model leaned Palermo to win (39%) and got this one wrong. Picks: H:0.25 pushed, Both teams to score: No lost (0.0u), Home or away lost (0.0u), O lost (0.0u).
| punditClaude Haiku 4.5 (Basho) |
| Home |
| Yes |
| Over |
| 62% |
“Ascoli (Elo 1601.1, 1st place) has a 3.3% model edge over market odds (33.24% vs 30.4%), superior attack rating (1.357 vs 1.158), and strong recent form with 4 wins in last 6.” |
| punditDeepSeek V3.2 (Wei) | Away | Yes | Over | 60% |
“Palermo is the stronger team (1st vs 3rd, 1601 vs 1489 Elo) and our model gives them a 38.8% win probability, the highest among the three outcomes, despite the market favoring them more.” | ||||
| punditGemini 2.5 Flash (Gem) | Away | No | Over | 65% |
“Palermo is in excellent form, sitting 1st in the table with 26 points and a strong attack rating of 1.357.” | ||||
| punditGPT-5 Mini (Sam) | Away | No | Over | 72% |
“The model favors Palermo away at 38.77% vs Ascoli 33.24% and draw 28.00%, with Palermo also stronger on Elo (1601.1) and superior recent form.” | ||||
| punditLlama 4 Maverick (Mark) | Away | Yes | Over | 65% |
“The model gives 52.3% chance for over 2.5 goals (OU25), and the market probability is 57.93%, indicating a good edge; Palermo has a strong attack (1.357 DC factor) and Ascoli has a leaky defence (0.576 DC factor).” | ||||
| punditQwen3 235B (Jack) | Home | No | Under | 68% |
“The model gives a 47.7% chance of under 2.5 goals, slightly above the market's 42.07%, creating a positive edge.” | ||||
AI pundits reason over our data pack; they have no extra information.