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Netherlands · Eredivisie · Sat 7 Nov · 17:45
17th · 9 pts · -9 GD
3:1
Full time
11th · 12 pts · -8 GD
39%
Den Haag
25%
Draw
35%
Sparta Rotterdam
Bookmakers say
39% / 25% / 36%
Where we differ most
H 0%
Safest read
Home or away win (12) · we say 75%
Our safest read is Home or away win (12) at 75%; the bookmakers say 75%.
Both teams to score
58%
Over 2.5 goals
61%
Consensus
1X2
Home 100%
BTTS
Yes 100%
O/U 2.5
Over 88%
| Source | Result | BTTS | O/U 2.5 | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| modelWaveBets Blend | Home | Yes | Over | - |
| oddsBookmakers | Home | - | Over | - |
| Team | Elo | Att | Def |
|---|---|---|---|
| Den Haag | 1384 | 0.67 | 1.91 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 1350 | 0.86 | 1.64 |
Den Haag rated 33 Elo ahead. Attack and defence are goals per game the model expects against an average side.
Correct score heatmap, Asian handicap and the AI pre-match write-up
Unlock with ProDen Haag 3-1 Sparta Rotterdam. Our model leaned Den Haag to win (39%) and called it right. Picks: H:0 won (+8.0u), Both teams to score won (+0.0u), Home or away won (+0.0u), O won (+0.0u).
| punditClaude Haiku 4.5 (Basho) |
| Home |
| Yes |
| Over |
| 58% |
“Model gives Den Haag 39.48% win probability with a slight +0.38% edge over market (39.1%), while OU2.5 shows 60.71% for Over with -0.52% edge—the published tip.” |
| punditDeepSeek V3.2 (Wei) | Home | Yes | Over | 55% |
“The model gives Den Haag a 39.1% win probability, the highest among the three outcomes, and their Elo rating (1380.4) is slightly stronger than Sparta's (1367.9).” | ||||
| punditGemini 2.5 Flash (Gem) | Home | Yes | Over | 65% |
“Our model predicts Over 2.5 goals with a 60.71% probability, which is higher than the market's 61.23% implied probability.” | ||||
| punditGPT-5 Mini (Sam) | Home | Yes | Over | 70% |
“The model gives double-chance 12 a 0.7447 probability, higher than single-win chances (H 0.3948, A 0.3498); BTTS is 0.5769 and OU2.5 O is 0.6071, but DC 12 (74.47%) is the strongest single-edge play.” | ||||
| punditLlama 4 Maverick (Mark) | Home | Yes | Over | 70% |
“The model gives Den Haag a 39.19% chance of winning (H: 0.3919), with both teams likely to score (BTTS: Y, 0.5784) and over 2.5 goals expected (OU25: O, 0.6118).” | ||||
| punditQwen3 235B (Jack) | Home | Yes | Under | 68% |
“Den Haag has a slight edge in 1X2 (39.48% vs 35.46% market) and strong DC value at 65.03%.” | ||||
AI pundits reason over our data pack; they have no extra information.