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Portugal · Primeira Liga · Sat 7 Nov · 20:30
6th · 21 pts · +12 GD
VS
Kick-off
10th · 15 pts · -5 GD
84%
Sp Lisbon
11%
Draw
6%
Moreirense
Bookmakers say
84% / 10% / 5%
Where we differ most
D 0%
Safest read
Home win or draw (1X) · we say 94%
Our safest read is Home win or draw (1X) at 94%; the bookmakers say 95%.
Both teams to score
49%
Over 2.5 goals
68%
Consensus
1X2
Home 100%
BTTS
No 86%
O/U 2.5
Over 100%
| Source | Result | BTTS | O/U 2.5 | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| modelWaveBets Blend | Home | No | Over | - |
| oddsBookmakers | Home | - | Over | - |
| Team | Elo | Att | Def |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sp Lisbon | 1668 | 1.96 | 0.77 |
| Moreirense | 1368 | 0.87 | 1.30 |
Sp Lisbon rated 300 Elo ahead. Attack and defence are goals per game the model expects against an average side.
Correct score heatmap, Asian handicap and the AI pre-match write-up
Unlock with Pro| punditClaude Haiku 4.5 (Basho) |
| Home |
| No |
| Over |
| 72% |
“Sp Lisbon's model probability of 83.91% home win significantly outweighs Moreirense's 5.52%, supported by Lisbon's superior Elo rating (1656.6 vs 1401.4) and attacking strength (1.861 vs 0.86).” |
| punditDeepSeek V3.2 (Wei) | Home | No | Over | 68% |
“Sp Lisbon has an 84% model win probability and a strong home rating (attack 1.845), while Moreirense's defence is weak (1.38).” | ||||
| punditGemini 2.5 Flash (Gem) | Home | No | Over | 75% |
“Sp Lisbon has a high win probability of 0.8391 according to our model, significantly higher than Moreirense's 0.0552.” | ||||
| punditGPT-5 Mini (Sam) | Home | No | Over | 82% |
“Model gives Sp Lisbon an 83.91% chance to win (model 0.8391) while BTTS is slightly against scoring from both sides (N 0.5058) and Over 2.5 is likely (O 0.6776).” | ||||
| punditLlama 4 Maverick (Mark) | Home | Yes | Over | 80% |
“The home team has a high win probability of 83.91% and a strong attack rating of 1.845, while the away team has a weaker defence rating of 1.38.” | ||||
| punditQwen3 235B (Jack) | Home | No | Over | 85% |
“Our model gives Sp Lisbon a 83.9% chance of winning, backed by superior attack (1.845) and defence (0.844) ratings.” | ||||
AI pundits reason over our data pack; they have no extra information.