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Portugal · Primeira Liga · Sun 8 Nov · 18:00
14th · 9 pts · +2 GD
VS
Kick-off
20th · 3 pts · +3 GD
18%
Guimaraes
23%
Draw
59%
Porto
Bookmakers say
18% / 23% / 59%
Where we differ most
A 0%
Safest read
Draw or away win (X2) · we say 82%
Our safest read is Draw or away win (X2) at 82%; the bookmakers say 82%.
Both teams to score
38%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Consensus
1X2
Away 100%
BTTS
No 100%
O/U 2.5
Over 62%
| Source | Result | BTTS | O/U 2.5 | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| modelWaveBets Blend | Away | No | Over | - |
| oddsBookmakers | Away | - | Over | - |
| Team | Elo | Att | Def |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes | 1367 | 0.83 | 1.18 |
| Porto | 1648 | 1.58 | 0.48 |
Porto rated 281 Elo ahead. Attack and defence are goals per game the model expects against an average side.
Correct score heatmap, Asian handicap and the AI pre-match write-up
Unlock with Pro| punditClaude Haiku 4.5 (Basho) |
| Away |
| No |
| Over |
| 62% |
“Porto's model probability of 58.93% away win significantly outweighs Guimaraes' 17.91% home win, with a +0.12% edge.” |
| punditDeepSeek V3.2 (Wei) | Away | No | Under | 65% |
“Porto has a strong 58.9% model win probability and a 255-point Elo rating advantage, while Guimaraes's recent form includes three scoreless games, supporting a low-scoring away win.” | ||||
| punditGemini 2.5 Flash (Gem) | Away | No | Under | 75% |
“Porto has a significantly higher win probability of 0.5893 compared to Guimaraes' 0.1791.” | ||||
| punditGPT-5 Mini (Sam) | Away | No | Over | 80% |
“Model gives Porto (away) 58.93% and double-chance X2 82.09%, so DC X2 is the clearest edge.” | ||||
| punditLlama 4 Maverick (Mark) | Away | No | Over | 70% |
“The model gives Porto (away) a 58.93% chance of winning (1X2), with a slight edge over the market probability; Guimaraes has a weaker attack and defence rating compared to Porto.” | ||||
| punditQwen3 235B (Jack) | Away | No | Under | 68% |
“The model gives a 62.27% chance of under 2.5 goals and 62.27% chance of no BTTS, supported by Guimaraes' low attack (0.852) and Porto's strong defence (0.528).” | ||||
AI pundits reason over our data pack; they have no extra information.