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Spain · La Liga · Sat 7 Nov · 17:30
16th · 12 pts · -11 GD
1:1
Full time
7th · 16 pts · +4 GD
27%
Osasuna
28%
Draw
46%
Ath Bilbao
Bookmakers say
26% / 27% / 47%
Where we differ most
H 1%
Safest read
Draw or away win (X2) · we say 73%
Our safest read is Draw or away win (X2) at 73%; the bookmakers say 74%. The value angle is H:0.5 at 1.75: we say 68%.
Both teams to score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Consensus
1X2
Away 100%
BTTS
Yes 71%
O/U 2.5
Under 100%
| Source | Result | BTTS | O/U 2.5 | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| modelWaveBets Blend | Away | Yes | Under | - |
| oddsBookmakers | Away | - | Under | - |
| Team | Elo | Att | Def |
|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | 1356 | 0.78 | 1.32 |
| Ath Bilbao | 1399 | 0.80 | 1.23 |
Ath Bilbao rated 43 Elo ahead. Attack and defence are goals per game the model expects against an average side.
Correct score heatmap, Asian handicap and the AI pre-match write-up
Unlock with ProOsasuna 1-1 Ath Bilbao. Our model leaned Ath Bilbao to win (46%) and got this one wrong. Picks: H:0.5 won (+7.5u), Both teams to score won (+0.0u), Draw or away won (+0.0u), U won (+0.0u).
| punditClaude Haiku 4.5 (Basho) |
| Away |
| Yes |
| Under |
| 52% |
“Ath Bilbao is favored by our model (45.69% vs 26.82% for Osasuna home win) with a +0.91 edge on the away win.” |
| punditDeepSeek V3.2 (Wei) | Away | No | Under | 62% |
“The model gives Athletic Bilbao a 45.7% win probability with a positive edge, and under 2.5 goals a 54.4% probability, aligning with Osasuna's poor form and both teams' defensive ratings.” | ||||
| punditGemini 2.5 Flash (Gem) | Away | Yes | Under | 60% |
“Ath Bilbao has a significantly higher model probability of winning at 0.4569 compared to Osasuna's 0.2682.” | ||||
| punditGPT-5 Mini (Sam) | Away | Yes | Under | 70% |
“The model favours Athletic Bilbao 45.69% vs Osasuna 26.82% (model A 0.4569, H 0.2682) and the X2 double-chance probability is 73.23% (model X2 0.7323), so X2 offers clear value.” | ||||
| punditLlama 4 Maverick (Mark) | Away | Yes | Under | 60% |
“The model's probability for under 2.5 goals is 0.5437, slightly higher than over 2.5 goals at 0.4563; both teams to score has a near 50-50 chance at 0.5029 for yes, and away win probability is 0.4569.” | ||||
| punditQwen3 235B (Jack) | Away | No | Under | 52% |
“The model shows a slight edge (0.0004) on under 2.5 goals with a 54.37% chance, supported by Osasuna's weak attack (dc.attack: 0.822) and Athletic Bilbao's strong defence (dc.defence: 1.13).” | ||||
AI pundits reason over our data pack; they have no extra information.