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Spain · La Liga · Sun 8 Nov · 15:15
5th · 19 pts
VS
Kick-off
14th · 12 pts · -5 GD
56%
Sociedad
23%
Draw
21%
Vallecano
Bookmakers say
58% / 22% / 20%
Where we differ most
A 1%
Safest read
Home win or draw (1X) · we say 79%
Our safest read is Home win or draw (1X) at 79%; the bookmakers say 80%.
Both teams to score
61%
Over 2.5 goals
61%
Consensus
1X2
Home 100%
BTTS
Yes 100%
O/U 2.5
Over 100%
| Source | Result | BTTS | O/U 2.5 | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| modelWaveBets Blend | Home | Yes | Over | - |
| oddsBookmakers | Home | - | Over | - |
| Team | Elo | Att | Def |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sociedad | 1419 | 1.09 | 1.46 |
| Vallecano | 1447 | 0.82 | 1.16 |
Vallecano rated 28 Elo ahead. Attack and defence are goals per game the model expects against an average side.
Correct score heatmap, Asian handicap and the AI pre-match write-up
Unlock with Pro| punditClaude Haiku 4.5 (Basho) |
| Home |
| Yes |
| Over |
| 62% |
“Sociedad are strong favorites with 57.6% model probability vs Vallecano's 20.2%, supported by superior ratings (Elo 1447 vs 1436) and better form (3 wins in last 6 vs mixed results).” |
| punditDeepSeek V3.2 (Wei) | Home | Yes | Over | 65% |
“Our model gives Sociedad a 57.6% win probability, significantly higher than Vallecano's 20.2%, supported by Sociedad's superior league position (5th vs 12th) and stronger attack rating (1.26 vs 0.897).” | ||||
| punditGemini 2.5 Flash (Gem) | Home | Yes | Over | 60% |
“Sociedad has a strong home advantage with a model probability of 0.576 for a win.” | ||||
| punditGPT-5 Mini (Sam) | Home | Yes | Over | 75% |
“Model gives Sociedad a 57.6% win vs Vallecano 20.2% (draw 22.2%), so home win is most likely.” | ||||
| punditLlama 4 Maverick (Mark) | Home | Yes | Over | 70% |
“The model gives Sociedad (home) a 57.6% chance of winning (1X2), with a slight edge over the market odds.” | ||||
| punditQwen3 235B (Jack) | Home | Yes | Over | 65% |
“The model gives BTTS 'Y' a 60.25% chance, supported by Sociedad's strong attack (dc.attack 1.26) and Vallecano's weak defence (dc.defence 1.117).” | ||||
AI pundits reason over our data pack; they have no extra information.