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Spain · La Liga · Sun 8 Nov · 17:30
11th · 12 pts
VS
Kick-off
15th · 12 pts · -8 GD
65%
Villarreal
22%
Draw
13%
Getafe
Bookmakers say
68% / 20% / 12%
Where we differ most
D 2%
Safest read
Home win or draw (1X) · we say 87%
Our safest read is Home win or draw (1X) at 87%; the bookmakers say 88%. The value angle is Under 2.5 goals: we say 51% against the market's 46%.
Both teams to score
39%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Consensus
1X2
Home 100%
BTTS
No 100%
O/U 2.5
Under 50%
| Source | Result | BTTS | O/U 2.5 | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| modelWaveBets Blend | Home | No | Under | - |
| oddsBookmakers | Home | - | Over | - |
| Team | Elo | Att | Def |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 1519 | 1.26 | 1.16 |
| Getafe | 1416 | 0.50 | 0.87 |
Villarreal rated 104 Elo ahead. Attack and defence are goals per game the model expects against an average side.
Correct score heatmap, Asian handicap and the AI pre-match write-up
Unlock with Pro| punditClaude Haiku 4.5 (Basho) |
| Home |
| No |
| Over |
| 62% |
“Villarreal's superior ratings (1494 vs 1401 Elo, 1.26 vs 0.57 attack) and model probability of 67.6% for home win provide clear edge over market's 68.3%, though modest.” |
| punditDeepSeek V3.2 (Wei) | Home | No | Under | 68% |
“Villarreal has a 67.6% model probability to win, supported by a stronger attack rating (1.256 vs 0.569) and home advantage.” | ||||
| punditGemini 2.5 Flash (Gem) | Home | No | Under | 70% |
“Villarreal has a significantly higher model probability of winning at 0.676 compared to Getafe's 0.1206.” | ||||
| punditGPT-5 Mini (Sam) | Home | No | Over | 78% |
“Model gives Villarreal a 67.6% win probability and 1X (double chance) at 87.94%, so the safest play is DC 1X.” | ||||
| punditLlama 4 Maverick (Mark) | Home | No | Over | 75% |
“The model gives Villarreal a 68% chance of winning (probs.1X2.model.H = 0.676), and both teams to score is unlikely given Getafe's poor attack (ratings.302.dc.attack = 0.569) and Villarreal's solid defence (ratings.304.dc.defence = 1.055).” | ||||
| punditQwen3 235B (Jack) | Home | No | Under | 68% |
“The model gives a 60.91% chance of under 2.5 goals and both teams not scoring, supported by Villarreal's strong attack (1.256 DC) facing Getafe's weak attack (0.569 DC) and recent low-scoring trends.” | ||||
AI pundits reason over our data pack; they have no extra information.