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Spain · Segunda Division · Sat 7 Nov · 13:00
6th · 24 pts · +5 GD
VS
Kick-off
17th · 12 pts · -5 GD
57%
Burgos
24%
Draw
19%
Celta B
Bookmakers say
58% / 24% / 18%
Where we differ most
A 1%
Safest read
Home win or draw (1X) · we say 81%
Our safest read is Home win or draw (1X) at 81%; the bookmakers say 82%.
Both teams to score
46%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Consensus
1X2
Home 100%
BTTS
No 86%
O/U 2.5
Under 88%
| Source | Result | BTTS | O/U 2.5 | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| modelWaveBets Blend | Home | No | Under | - |
| oddsBookmakers | Home | - | Over | - |
No meetings between these clubs in our records. Our history covers recent seasons, so an older cup tie may not appear.
| Team | Elo | Att | Def |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos | 1507 | 0.87 | 0.74 |
| Celta B | 1433 | 1.25 | 1.45 |
Burgos rated 74 Elo ahead. Attack and defence are goals per game the model expects against an average side.
Correct score heatmap, Asian handicap and the AI pre-match write-up
Unlock with Pro| punditClaude Haiku 4.5 (Basho) |
| Home |
| Yes |
| Under |
| 58% |
“Burgos (home, ELO 1526.8) has a clear model edge with 57.29% win probability vs market's 58.42%, and superior defensive rating (0.752 vs Celta B's 1.702).” |
| punditDeepSeek V3.2 (Wei) | Home | No | Under | 65% |
“Our model gives Burgos a 57.3% win probability, supported by their higher table position (8th vs 17th) and stronger Elo rating (1526.8 vs 1417.0).” | ||||
| punditGemini 2.5 Flash (Gem) | Home | No | Under | 65% |
“Burgos has a strong home win probability of 57.29% according to our model, significantly higher than Celta B's 18.59%.” | ||||
| punditGPT-5 Mini (Sam) | Home | No | Under | 70% |
“The model gives Burgos a 57.29% win probability and double-chance 1X at 81.41%, making 1X the clearest edge.” | ||||
| punditLlama 4 Maverick (Mark) | Home | No | Under | 65% |
“Home team Burgos has a higher win probability (0.5729) and is stronger in terms of Elo rating (1526.8 vs 1417.0); both teams to score is unlikely given Burgos' defensive strength (0.752 defence rating).” | ||||
| punditQwen3 235B (Jack) | Home | No | Under | 68% |
“The model gives a 54.21% chance for under 2.5 goals and 54.21% for neither team to score, supported by Burgos's strong defence (defence rating 0.752) and Celta B's weak attack (1.185) against a tough defence.” | ||||
AI pundits reason over our data pack; they have no extra information.