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Germany · Bundesliga 2 · Sun 11 Oct · 11:30
2:0
Full time
45%
St Pauli
24%
Draw
31%
Karlsruhe
Bookmakers say
58% / 22% / 20%
Where we differ most
A +11%
Our pick
Home win or draw (1X) · we say 57%
Home win is our most likely single outcome at 45%, but not a majority call, so the pick is the double chance on the home side or the draw at 57%. The straight Home win at 1.68 is the value angle: we rate it 45% against the bookmakers' 58%. A generous price, not a confident pick.
Both teams to score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Consensus
1X2
Home 88%
BTTS
Yes 86%
O/U 2.5
Over 75%
| Source | Result | BTTS | O/U 2.5 | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| modelWaveBets Blend | Home | Yes | Over | - |
| oddsBookmakers | Home | - | Over | - |
Correct score heatmap, Asian handicap and the AI pre-match write-up
Unlock with ProSt Pauli 2-0 Karlsruhe. Our model leaned St Pauli to win (45%) and called it right. Picks: Karlsruhe to win lost (-10.0u), U won (+16.4u), St Pauli to win won (+6.8u), Karlsruhe to win lost (-10.0u).
| punditClaude Haiku 4.5 |
| Home |
| Yes |
| Over |
| 58% |
“St Pauli's model probability of 44.99% for home win exceeds Karlsruhe's 30.83%, supported by St Pauli's superior Elo rating (1175.8 vs 1250.5 favors home) and better recent form (2W-2D-2L vs 1W-0D-5L).” |
| punditDeepSeek V3.2 | Home | Yes | Under | 55% |
“The model gives St Pauli a 56.8% probability to win or draw (DC 1X), supported by their better recent form and home advantage, while Karlsruhe has a poor away record.” | ||||
| punditGemini 2.5 Flash | Away | Yes | Over | 65% |
“The model shows a significant edge for an away win at 0.091, with Karlsruhe's win probability at 30.83% against the market's 21.73%.” | ||||
| punditGPT-5 Mini | Home | Yes | Over | 70% |
“The model gives St Pauli the highest single-win chance (H 0.4499 vs A 0.3083) but rates double chance 12 at 0.7316, making 'no draw' the strongest edge.” | ||||
| punditLlama 4 Maverick | Home | Yes | Over | 55% |
“St Pauli is in better form (1W, 4D, 1L) compared to Karlsruhe (1W, 2D, 3L) and holds a higher table position (8th vs 14th).” | ||||
| punditQwen3 235B | Home | No | Under | 68% |
“The model shows a 0.0942 edge on under 2.5 goals (model: 42.18%, market: 32.76%) and St.” | ||||
AI pundits reason over our data pack; they have no extra information.