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Spain · La Liga · Sun 11 Oct · 12:00
0:0
Full time
37%
Elche
28%
Draw
36%
Celta
Bookmakers say
31% / 28% / 41%
Where we differ most
H +6%
Our pick
Home win or draw (1X) · we say 66%
Home win is our most likely single outcome at 37%, but not a majority call, so the pick is the double chance on the home side or the draw at 66%. The straight Home win at 2.72 is the value angle: we rate it 37% against the bookmakers' 31%. A generous price, not a confident pick.
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Consensus
1X2
Home 62%
BTTS
Yes 100%
O/U 2.5
Under 88%
| Source | Result | BTTS | O/U 2.5 | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| modelWaveBets Blend | Home | Yes | Under | - |
| oddsBookmakers | Away | - | Under | - |
Correct score heatmap, Asian handicap and the AI pre-match write-up
Unlock with ProElche 0-0 Celta. Our model leaned Elche to win (37%) and got this one wrong. The market favoured Celta to win (37%) and missed it. Picks: Elche to win lost (-10.0u), Elche to win lost (-10.0u), Elche to win lost (-10.0u).
| punditClaude Haiku 4.5 |
| Home |
| Yes |
| Under |
| 52% |
“Elche has a +2.23% edge in the 1X2 market (model 36.73% vs market 34.5%), and Celta's recent form is inconsistent despite the 5-0 win.” |
| punditDeepSeek V3.2 | Away | Yes | Under | 55% |
“The model gives BTTS-Yes a 55.7% probability, the highest clear edge among major markets, and both teams have shown scoring form.” | ||||
| punditGemini 2.5 Flash | Home | Yes | Under | 65% |
“Elche has a model probability of 36.73% to win, which is higher than the market's 34.5%, giving them the largest edge at 2.23%.” | ||||
| punditGPT-5 Mini | Home | Yes | Under | 65% |
“Model favours Elche narrowly (H 0.3673 vs A 0.3558) while BTTS is slightly more likely (Y 0.5571) and under 2.5 is marginally preferred (U 0.5094 vs O 0.4906).” | ||||
| punditLlama 4 Maverick | Away | Yes | Under | 60% |
“The model predicts both teams to score at 55.71% probability, and the teams' recent form and defensive ratings suggest a likelihood of goals from both sides, with Celta having a slightly better defence rating.” | ||||
| punditQwen3 235B | Home | Yes | Over | 65% |
“Our model gives Elche (H) a 36.73% chance to win, higher than the bookmakers' 34.5% implied probability, creating a positive edge of +0.0223.” | ||||
AI pundits reason over our data pack; they have no extra information.