Track record

Elo ratings

Every settled prediction from this model, scored daily. Hit rate is the share of matches where the most likely outcome happened. Brier and log loss measure how well calibrated the probabilities are: lower is better.

2968 predictions scored65% hit rate

Market	Predictions	Hit rate	Brier	Log loss
1X2	474	51.3%	0.2136	0.6216
BTTS	316	43.7%	0.2605	0.7151
Double chance	474	75.9%	0.2136	0.6216
O/U 0.5	220	99.1%	0.0170	0.1175
O/U 1.5	316	83.5%	0.1563	0.4923
O/U 2.5	316	42.4%	0.2708	0.7372
O/U 3.5	316	53.8%	0.3039	0.8344
O/U 4.5	316	72.2%	0.2310	0.7154
O/U 5.5	220	84.5%	0.1454	0.5531

Date	Market	Predictions	Hit rate	Brier	Log loss
2026-10-15	O/U 5.5	102	96.1%	0.0395	0.1991
2026-10-15	O/U 4.5	102	82.4%	0.1480	0.4857
2026-10-15	O/U 3.5	102	62.7%	0.2554	0.7254
2026-10-15	O/U 2.5	102	49.0%	0.2564	0.7071
2026-10-15	O/U 1.5	102	88.2%	0.1395	0.4577
2026-10-15	O/U 0.5	102	98.0%	0.0249	0.1382
2026-10-15	Double chance	153	90.2%	0.1925	0.5690
2026-10-15	BTTS	102	45.1%	0.2546	0.7027
2026-10-15	1X2	153	58.8%	0.1925	0.5690
2026-10-14	O/U 5.5	42	71.4%	0.2661	0.9479
2026-10-14	O/U 4.5	42	47.6%	0.4330	1.2641
2026-10-14	O/U 3.5	42	33.3%	0.4084	1.0747
2026-10-14	O/U 2.5	42	23.8%	0.3216	0.8478
2026-10-14	O/U 1.5	42	81.0%	0.1505	0.4788
2026-10-14	O/U 0.5	42	100.0%	0.0122	0.1086
2026-10-14	Double chance	63	61.9%	0.2332	0.6660
2026-10-14	BTTS	42	52.4%	0.2724	0.7404
2026-10-14	1X2	63	52.4%	0.2332	0.6660
2026-10-13	O/U 5.5	52	73.1%	0.2483	0.8843
2026-10-13	O/U 4.5	52	61.5%	0.3151	0.9376

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