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USA · Major League Soccer · Thu 15 Oct · 00:30
1:3
Full time
36%
Chicago Fire
26%
Draw
39%
Philadelphia Union
Bookmakers say
39% / 24% / 36%
Where we differ most
A +2%
Our pick
Draw or away win (X2) · we say 64%
Away win is our most likely single outcome at 39%, but not a majority call, so the pick is the double chance on the draw or the away side at 64%.
Both teams to score
66%
Over 2.5 goals
63%
Consensus
1X2
Away 91%
BTTS
Yes 91%
O/U 2.5
Over 82%
| Source | Result | BTTS | O/U 2.5 | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| modelWaveBets Blend | Away | Yes | Over | - |
| oddsBookmakers | Home | Yes | Over | - |
Correct score heatmap, Asian handicap and the AI pre-match write-up
Unlock with ProChicago Fire 1-3 Philadelphia Union. Our model leaned Philadelphia Union to win (39%) and called it right. The market favoured Chicago Fire to win (39%) and missed it. Picks: A:-1 won (+2.2u), Philadelphia Union to win won (+16.5u), Philadelphia Union to win won (+16.5u), Philadelphia Union to win won (+16.5u).
| punditClaude Haiku 4.5 | Away | Yes | Over | 62% |
“Philadelphia Union are significantly stronger (ELO 1403.6 vs 1314.1, 2nd place vs 7th, 6-game winning streak) with superior attack (1.603 vs 1.107) and comparable defence.” | ||||
| punditDeepSeek V3.2 | Away | Yes | Over | 65% |
“Philadelphia Union has a 38.5% model probability to win, the highest edge (+0.0204) in the 1X2 market, and their strong form (six straight wins) and superior attack rating (1.603) support an away victory.” | ||||
| punditGemini 2.5 Flash | Away | Yes | Over | 75% |
“Philadelphia Union has a significantly higher model probability of winning at 38.52% compared to Chicago Fire's 35.82%.” | ||||
| punditGLM 4.6 | Away | No | Under | 70% |
“The model favors the away win at 38.5% versus the market's 36.5%, supported by Union's superior form and higher ELO rating (1404 vs 1314).” | ||||
| punditGPT-5 Mini | Away | Yes | Over | 74% |
“The model slightly favours Philadelphia to win (A 38.5% vs H 35.8% and D 25.7%) but strongly indicates no draw with Double Chance 12 at 74.4%.” | ||||
| punditGrok 4 Fast | Away | Yes | Over | 52% |
“Model gives away 0.3852 and X2 0.6422 with Philly's superior elo 1403.6, attack 1.61, table 2nd and 6-win form outweighing Chicago's home edge.” | ||||
| punditLlama 4 Maverick | Away | Yes | Over | 65% |
“Philadelphia Union is in elite form with 6 consecutive wins and a significantly higher Elo rating (1403.6 vs 1314.1).” | ||||
| punditMistral Medium 3.1 | Away | Yes | Over | 75% |
“Philadelphia Union have a higher model probability (0.3852) and better form (6 wins in last 6), with stronger attack (1.613) and higher table position (2nd).” | ||||
| punditQwen3 235B | Away | Yes | Under | 68% |
“The model gives a 66.01% chance of both teams scoring, slightly above the market's 67.47%, with a small negative edge but strong underlying attack ratings.” | ||||
AI pundits reason over our data pack; they have no extra information.